This Surprised Everyone. Movers Banking on MLS Data Are Missing Most of the Market

Here’s a number that should stop every mover cold: 62-75% of your potential customers will never appear in MLS data.

We just analyzed 2,000 first-party moving prospects across six major metros. The industry assumes 70-80% of moves stem from home listings. The reality? Just 25-38% connect to any MLS activity—even when we expanded our search window four months back and cross-referenced tax assessor records to catch pocket listings.

This isn’t a data glitch. It’s a market reality that’s been hiding in plain sight.

Before We Go Further, Let’s Address the Questions You’re Asking

We know what you’re thinking: “Maybe these movers just aren’t good at capturing MLS leads. Maybe they’re missing the high-value listings.”

Fair question. So let’s be clear about our data set: these aren’t struggling operations. The movers in our analysis range from established enterprises with dominant consumer market share to emerging companies with growing consumer capabilities. Some generate millions in residential revenue. Others are building that muscle. The pattern holds across the spectrum.

Here’s the critical point: MLS properties absolutely need movers. We’re not suggesting otherwise. What we’re saying is that in today’s market, those MLS leads have become incredibly competitive. Every mover in your market is chasing the same listings, calling the same realtors, sending the same mailers. It’s not that MLS doesn’t work—it’s that the competition for those leads has intensified dramatically.

But here’s where it gets interesting: while everyone’s competing intensely for that same 38%, the other 62% moves with far less competition. Our referral programs, rental indicators, and lifecycle triggers capture demand that your competitors might not even be tracking.

Think of it this way: would you rather be one of ten movers calling about the same MLS listing, or the only mover reaching out to a landlord whose tenant just gave notice? Both customers need a mover. One gets multiple options. The other might not even know where to start looking.

The winners in this market aren’t choosing between MLS and off-market strategies. They’re executing both—fast on MLS when it appears, systematic on everything else.

The Math That Changes Everything

Let’s be crystal clear about what we did. We pulled actual prospect records from enterprise mover CRMs—real leads, real customers, real revenue. Then we matched them against every available data source: active MLS listings, recent sales, tax records, property transfers. We even caught the off-market deals that never hit public feeds.

Six metros. Every region. Same story everywhere: the vast majority of moving demand happens completely outside the MLS ecosystem.

Think about what this means. While you’re optimizing campaigns around listing data, refreshing feeds, parsing new listings—you’re systematically ignoring two-thirds of your market. It’s like fishing in a pond while ignoring the ocean next door.

Where the Real Moves Hide

That invisible 62-75%? It’s not random noise. It’s structured, predictable, and completely accessible—if you know where to look:

Rental turnover drives massive volume. Every lease cycle, job change, and life transition creates moving demand that never touches MLS. The average renter moves every two years. Homeowners? Every seven. Do the math on market opportunity.

Off-market transfers—estates, divorces, investor flips, family sales—generate real moves without listings. These aren’t edge cases; they’re mainstream transaction types that MLS feeds structurally cannot capture.

Secondary properties, seasonal relocations, corporate moves—entire categories of demand that exist outside traditional home-sale patterns.

Why the 70-80% Assumption Persists

Why does the industry widely believe the 70-80% figure? Because it makes intuitive sense. Clean data, standardized feeds, easy attribution. MLS providers have built an entire ecosystem around this understanding, and the industry has operated on this assumption for years.

But intuitive isn’t always accurate. And in a margin-compressed industry where every lead matters, building your entire strategy on what may be only 38% of the market could be limiting your growth potential.

Here’s what makes this finding particularly noteworthy: it’s most pronounced during off-season, exactly when movers need leads most. MLS activity decreases significantly, but rental moves continue. Off-market transfers proceed. Life doesn’t stop because mortgage rates changed.

The Competitive Arbitrage

This data asymmetry creates a significant arbitrage opportunity. Movers focusing primarily on MLS-only strategies are competing intensely for a smaller slice while a larger portion of the market moves with less competition.

Smart movers are already adjusting. They’re layering rental indicators, monitoring lease cycles, tracking corporate relocations, building predictive models on non-MLS signals. They’re not abandoning MLS—it’s still valuable for that 25-38%—but they’re not limiting themselves to it either.

The data suggests: focus solely on MLS and you may be limiting yourself to minority market share.

First-Party Data vs. Industry Assumptions

Here’s what changed our perspective entirely: access to actual first-party mover data at scale. Not modeled data. Not projected data. Real CRM records from major enterprise movers showing exactly where demand originates.

This isn’t theoretical. When you analyze thousands of actual moving customers and trace their origins, patterns emerge that seem to challenge conventional wisdom. The MLS-centric worldview makes sense if you haven’t had access to comprehensive first-party data.

And that appears to be the case for most. Many movers operate on industry assumptions, vendor promises, and competitor strategies. The few with robust first-party data have understandably kept this intelligence advantage to themselves. Until now.

The Path Forward

We’re not saying abandon MLS data. When mortgage rates normalize, we project MLS-connected moves might climb toward 45%. Maybe. But even in the best-case scenario, the majority of moving demand will remain off-MLS.

The winning formula is data diversity: MLS plus rental signals plus property indicators plus first-party intelligence. It’s harder to orchestrate but dramatically more effective. Think portfolio theory applied to lead generation.

Want proof? We’ll analyze your specific market mix. Your MLS percentage, your rental opportunity, your off-market potential, with actual numbers and price bands. Not projections or models—real analysis of your actual market dynamics.

Because here’s what the data reveals: if you’re expecting MLS feeds to deliver 70% of moving demand, you may be operating on outdated assumptions. And assumptions don’t move trucks.

The Data Network Effect

This finding only emerged because we’ve built something unique: aggregated, anonymized access to first-party data across multiple major movers, enriched with MLS, rental, assessor, and proprietary indicators. It’s the difference between looking through a keyhole and having panoramic vision.

Every competitor focusing primarily on MLS-only solutions is working with a limited view. They’re not necessarily wrong—their data is accurate for what it captures. It just appears to capture only part of the full picture.

The movers succeeding tomorrow will likely be those who see the full market today. The data suggests a clear opportunity. The only question is whether you’re ready to capture it.